According to @StockMKTNewz, Kalshi event markets are pricing roughly a 50% chance that Bitcoin (BTC) will trade below $80,000 at some point in 2025; source: twitter.com/StockMKTNewz/status/1993397453970973019 and x.com/WOLF_Financial/status/1993397226153123849 (posted Nov 25, 2025). This 50% implied probability signals a balanced risk of a sub-$80K drawdown that traders should factor into risk management and positioning around the $80,000 level; source: @StockMKTNewz post cited above. Tactically, aligning exposure with these event-market odds can include downside hedges such as protective puts or collars centered near the $80,000 strike and disciplined stop levels to manage tail risk; source: risk-management guidance derived from the 50% probability reported by @StockMKTNewz (tweet link above).

According to Altcoin Daily, Polymarket pricing shows a 28% and rising probability that BTC will trade below $80k before year-end 2025, based on Polymarket market odds cited by Altcoin Daily. Altcoin Daily reports that these odds are trending higher on Polymarket, indicating increasing bearish sentiment among Polymarket participants that traders may monitor as a market-implied risk signal. Altcoin Daily’s update, sourced to Polymarket data, highlights prediction market probabilities as a timely sentiment gauge for BTC around the $80k threshold.

According to @AltcoinDaily, prediction-market data from Polymarket shows the probability that BTC trades below $80,000 in 2025 has risen to 28% and is increasing, signaling growing downside risk priced by participants (source: @AltcoinDaily; Polymarket). For traders, the higher sub-$80k likelihood indicates markets are increasingly hedging tail risk and may reprice volatility and support levels in line with the updated contract odds (source: Polymarket odds as referenced by @AltcoinDaily).